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8.8.04

So here's my question: what is the right balance of computers, humans, strength of schedule, etc. in the BCS formula?


Politics: At this point, I don't think that there are many thoughts of mine which haven't been explored by others. John Kerry has decided to run on his Vietnam record; kind of hard for me to see why he didn't pick a running-mate who was also in Vietnam, like Wes Clark, or John McCain. At least he tried for McCain. Considering how heavily he's relying on his 4 month tour in Vietnam to get him elected, I find it troubling that he isn't addressing the challenge to his credibility posed by his comrades-in-arms. Another question that has popped into my mind is "Why now?" That is to say, why wasn't this an issue when Kerry ran for (and won) the Lieutenant Governorship in Massachusetts? Or why has this not been an issue when he ran for (and won) a seat in the U.S. Senate? Possibly it was. Maybe it wasn't. A couple of obvious thoughts which come to mind are that, in those cases, John Kerry was running in Massachusetts; then, regardless of whether or not it was an issue, the citizens of the other 49 states would have no reason to hear about it, considering that no one outside the Commonwealth of Massachusetts ever cast a vote for or against John Kerry until the presidential primary. If it was an issue, perhaps those of us in the other 49 states didn't hear about it. It is also possible that it was never brought up by his honorable ship- and division-mates because they may be primarily concerned about the nation's military. Lieutenant Governors and Senate backbenchers don't exert a lot of authority over the same. But the President is, constitutionally, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and so they may have decided to break their silence.

Another possible issue is Theresa Heinz-Kerry. A letter writer in the L.A. Times (I think; it's been a couple of days and they kind of blend together after a little while) asked whether her eccentricity (my word; I forget, exactly, how it was phrased) was tolerated by conservatives when she was a Republican, and the wife of a Republican senator. I'll reuse an explanation I made earlier in the post: The family lives of backbencher senators are, more or less, private. So my response is thus: yes, her eccentric behaviour was tolerated when she was John Heinz' wife. Just as it was tolerated when she was Senator John Kerry's wife, but not nearly as much now that she is, potentially, the next First Lady. My (more relevant, I believe) question in response to his is whether the press and other liberals would have tolerated her if Senator Kerry was running as a conservative. If they had a field day with the fact that Nancy Reagan occasionally consulted astrologers...




College Football: College football is here once again, marked by the fact that, in fewer than three weeks, yours truly will see Virginia Tech in action against Southern Cal in the BCA Classic. So here's a quick beef I have with the polls: why is Virginia Tech getting no love?

(okay, other than the fact that one of the legendary Vicks was suspended from school for the fall, and so is off the team for the season)

(and other than the fact that Tech has a tougher road to hoe in a tougher conference)

(and other than the fact that its leading wide receiver, Earnest Wilford, graduated)

(and, perhaps biggest of all, other than the fact that they collapsed, going 2-5 in their last seven, with wins only over Temple - Temple! - and Miami - thus showing what might have been, while losing to WVU, Pitt, BC, Virginia and Cal - Cal!)

Never mind about that "no love" thing. This season's team is better than last year's. Yes, you read that right. The defence doesn't both suck and blow. The offence doesn't have to worry about who the leader is (hint: he's number 3 and has "RANDALL" across his back) and is going to get back to more of a power running game, so I hear, instead of the trickeration last season (although power running may be a small problem with Mike Imoh and Brenden Hill suspended for the first 3 games).

In any case, Tech's schedule has long been out. And maybe, just maybe, I'm tardy in posting this:

28 August, vs. Southern Cal in the BCA Classic (FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland). Tech's two biggest games (UVa notwithstanding) are at the ends of their schedule. They open with the defending national co-champion, possibly sans Mike Williams, possibly avec. He is good enough that, if he's gone, Tech has a fighting chance. But if he's in the game, Tech would have to stop both him and a very good ground game. And face down one of the best defences in the nation. Best of luck. If he's in, Tech loses (but covers the spread). If he's out, Tech wins outright (Panglossian, I know, but you heard it here first).

4 September, off. Blacksburg will be just about rebuilt, either from the crushing loss or the unexpected win. The students will go bloody nuts either way. Oh, wait, LSU's not coming to town. Never mind. The students will still be out of their bloody gourds.

11 September, vs. Western Michigan (Lane Stadium, Worsham Field, Blacksburg). You know they stopped making the Bronco about 10 years ago, right? And, before they did, they made it smaller?

18 September, vs. Duke (Lane). Now that Temple isn't playing us this season, I see that other ACC teams (Virginia and Maryland) have snapped them up. Virginia is even travelling to Philadelphia. And now that we're not playing Temple, we have to find another conference doormat. And Duke (at least until January) fills that role admirably.

25 September, vs. N.C. State (Lane). First big conference test. It'll be nice to get revenge on Chuck Amato (it was his special teams who had the field day against Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl in 2000, after all). Philip Rivers is gone, and one wonders whether T.A. McClendon can carry the load his ownself.

2 October, vs. West Virginia (Lane). Being the classy Hokie fan that I am, I can't in good conscience call on my fellow fans to treat the Mountaineers as the Hokies have been treated in Morgantown over the years. I would have hoped that something like that would show Mountaineer county (I won't call them a nation or even a state; even southern West Virginians go for Tech) the error of their ways. But they have the rivalry with their fellow arsonists at Maryland. I suspect that Tech will have a sense of itself and kick West Virginia's ass (West Virginia is overrated, and will only be kept in the polls by a weak-ass Big East conference).

9 October, at Wake Forest (Groves Stadium, Winston-Salem, N.C.). Can we say small basketball school? Can we say 2 hours from Blacksburg? Can we say just another home game?

16 October, vs. Florida A&M (Lane). Homecoming. Given the opponent, I suspect that the rigged King and Queen vote (I'll take the German Club and the Corps; I'll give 3-1 odds; any takers?) will be more interesting than the game. Folks will get good and drunk, and that's all that really matters.

23 October, off. Let me guess. Parents' weekend. I suspect that various social organisations will just be recovering from their homecoming celebrations.

28 October (Thursday), at Georgia Tech (Bobby Dodd Stadium, Grant Field, Atlanta). Tailgate Fever has a good point. It's not Va-a-a-ah Tech and Ga-a-a-a-ah Tech, guys. I'd feel more comfortable if it were at Lane (see Maryland, 18 November), but I suspect that the Hokies will eke it out.

6 November, at North Carolina (Kenan Field, Chapel Hill, N.C.). Temple is private. So is Duke. Rutgers is public. So is Carolina. The conference is big enough for two doormats, much like the Big East was. And both Mack Brown and Greg Ellis are in the state of Texas, thanks much. Nice try, guys.

13 November, off. Prepping for another Thursday night game. And recovering from...the previous week's bye.

18 November (Thursday), vs. Maryland (Lane). Four words: Thursday night in Blacksburg. I have noted my objections with playing during the week. So be it. But, that said, a quick bit of trivia for you: when was the last time the Hokies lost a Thursday night game in Blacksburg? (answer later). Maryland gets exposed for being yet another basketball school and gets blown out by three touchdowns.

27 November, vs. Virginia (Lane). Tech has beaten Virginia bad, they've beaten them the same season UVa was ranked #1, they've beaten them when (UVa/Tech) was down and out, and (Tech/UVa) was the baddest team around. Tech has won despite halftime defecits, coaches interfering, and senile coaches (theirs, not ours). So Virginia has a good defence. Tech's will be better by the end of the season. And don't sit here and tell me that UVa's offence will be particularly good, having lost the ACC player of the year. Tech wins by two touchdowns; the game isn't that close.

4 December, at Miami (Orange Bowl, Miami). So now that the fucking soldier is no longer with the 'Canes, and now that the defensive secondary is no longer anchored by, arguably, the best safety ever to play in college, what does that leave Miami? A motley crew of blue chips and a Steve Spurrier retread (not to mention a budding quarterback controversy). I'd feel more comfortable if the game was in Blacksburg, but it isn't. C'est la vie. But Miami, after last year's ass-kicking, will be gunning for Tech. And Tech, after the way that Miami showed them up at the end of last year's game, will be gunning for Miami. The big question is how great a team has to be to win this game, on the road, against one of the game's powers. I say that the team has to have greatness, be destined for it.

I believe.

A lot of people are saying that Tech will be 8-4 or, possibly, 9-3. Don't believe the hype. With the exception of the Miami game, the toughest games are at home (or, at the least, in front of rabidly partisan Tech-friendly crowds). And the Hokies now have to show that they can play without Marcus Vick, so they'll be motivated. If I were really a Pangloss, I would say that they'd go 12-0 and to the Orange Bowl. But I suspect that 10-2 is in the cards this season. And Virginia Tech last lost a Thursday night game at home in September 1995, against Boston College.




Zuletzt: I don't know the answer I posed to the Zuerst. But I do know this: The BCS formula was created to get away from primarily human polls. So mark my words: within the next 5 years, partisans will complain that their team was left out of the title game. They may even have a legitimate argument. And the BCS formula will be tweaked toward favouring the computer models.

Just give us the damn playoff already.

Later.

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