12.9.03
Zuerst: Ich spreche nur ein Bisschen Deutsch. Not much, but I know phrases here and there. Just thought I'd let you know. And why I'm not titling this First things first: or somesuch.
Politically: Perhaps introduction is in order. Probably the best way to describe my political views is to say that they are just to the right of libertarianism. I favour local governance, rather than national governance; the national government has, unless my interpretation of the Constitution is completely wrong, usurped several powers not enumerated and has eroded several liberties. Perhaps you're thinking, given the introduction, that I'm a Bush basher. I'm not, but I have my quarrels with him - primarily with his expansion of social programs like the prescription drug benefit, or Ted Kennedy's education bill, or, to hear Kennedy and other statists, "downpayment". The best part of this is that this expansion of central government started not only before I was born, not only before my parents were born, but before my grandparents were born. The worst amendment to our constitution was the 16th. It is the amendment that provides for the taxation of income: this is a huge source of revenue to the federal government; deny this and federal government is smaller out of necessity. Where, for example, does the Constitution mention education? How about the environment? What does our Constitution say about gun control? Why, then, are there these vast federal bureaucracies - created by federal laws - which exist to enforce other federal laws regarding these topics? Moreover, what business does a large central government have enforcing some one-size-fits-all regulation over all the land? I will leave you with a thought from ex-President Ford: "Government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." The founders knew this; why don't we?
Football: I will offer picks against the line in this space of both college football - NCAA warnings against gambling notwithstanding - and the NFL. I will predict every NFL game on the slate, but will only predict those college football games involving teams in the top 25 in either the AP (writers) or ESPN/USA Today (coaches) polls. Note: all picks for entertainment only; further note: if you're dumb enough to wager money based on a pick by me, then you deserve to lose it. I'm not betting my money on my picks; they are little more than intution based on incomplete information. All lines courtesy of Vegas.com. I am using the Caesars-Hilton line.
On to the picks (my picks in bold):
Fresno St (+28 1/2) @ Oklahoma (1 AP/1 ESPN): Fresno lives for these games, and OU has, in the past, looked beyond some of the games that aren't qute as important (i.e. not a major bowl, and not Texas). Do I think Fresno will win outright? Not in Norman. But I can't see them getting blown out to the tune of a 4 touchdown difference.
ECU (+41) @ Miami (2/2): I hate lines this big. And while ECU will get blown out, I'm guessing that Miami's 3rd stringers won't get the final margin to 41.
N.C. State (24/22) (+10 1/2) @ Ohio State (3/3): NC State will look to prove that last week was a fluke. Problem is, their defence looks like a very movable object. Lucky for them, Ohio State's offense seems to be the resistible force.
Hawaii (+21) @ Southern Cal (4/4): This is Hawaii wunderkind QB Tommy Chang's first game this season, having sat out the first game for an academic suspension. I can't imagine that there could be a worse opponent against which a QB shakes out the rust than SC. SC blows UH out.
Notre Dame (15/14) (+10 1/2) @ Michigan (5/7): If Notre Dame can't slow Chris Perry down, this should get ugly. But Notre Dame showed their grit coming from behind to beat Washington State last week. Michigan hasn't proven a thing, with big wins over Central Mich. and Houston. Please. And these games are always close.
Arkansas (+13 1/2) @ Texas (6/5): Arkansas hasn't lost to Texas since the split of the old Southwest Conference, including a win in the 2000 Cotton Bowl in which coach Houston Nutt flashed an upside-down "Hook 'em Horns" sign at the end of the game. Motivation? Sure. But Nutt always does well in big games; just ask Phil Fulmer.
Massachusetts (NL) @ Kansas State (7/6): K-State's second I-AA opponent this season. Expect a blowout, but it won't help KSU down the road in figuring out where they stand as a team, or in the BCS formula. Expect them to lose 1 or 2 games and get jammed up by the BCS. And withhold your sympathy.
South Carolina (25/NR) (+14 1/2) @ Georgia (8/8): South Carolina has won 2 of the last 3 in this series, and in those three games, Georgia has scored exactly 1 offensive touchdown, in the first possession of the 2000 game, a 21-10 loss in Columbia. To be completely honest, I'd be more surprised if Georgia covers than I would be if South Carolina wins outright.
Georgia Tech (+24) @ Florida State (10/10): Georgia Tech will have an emotional letdown after dropping Auburn to 0-2, and FSU is still playing the "us-against-the-world" card, which means that Tech will come out less than sharp, that they won't have the crowd to get behind them, and that FSU will come out sharp. Since Tech's talent isn't nearly as good as FSU's, expect a blowout.
Ball State (+31) @ Pittsburgh (11/12): Rod Rutherford gets the start after not starting last week; expect him to put big numbers up against another weak MAC team.
Western Illinois (NL) @ Louisiana State (12/11): Expect a blowout, even with 2nd or 3rd teamers playing.
UNLV (+21) @ Wisconsin (14/15): UNLV beats a decent Toledo team (down 10-7 at Marshall as I write this), and then goes off and gets blown out by Kansas. I can't see them doing anything but getting blown out at Wisconsin, because of the lack of mental toughness.
Utah State (+27) @ Arizona State (16/16): Just guessing. Don't have a clue about either of these teams, but I figure that being 16th in the country and being at home is worth 4 touchdowns against Utah State.
Washington State (+4) @ Colorado (17/17): Washington State showed me something in how they got out big at Notre Dame. Can they do it again, against a Colorado who beat UCLA by 2? I'm guessing yes, if only because I think UCLA isn't as good as WSU.
Penn State (+9 1/2) @ Nebraska (18/18): Penn State will look to rebound from the egg they laid at BC; NU will look for revenge from last year's 40-7 asskicking. I think that NU will win in the end, but by only a field goal.
Florida A&M (NL) @ Florida (19/20): Florida looks to rebound, and prepare for Tennessee next weekend. It's bound to get ugly.
Purdue (PK) @ Wake Forest (20/21): Pick 'em? Are you kidding me? I guess that Wake has to look out for an emotional letdown, and a motivated Purdue team, but Wake laid an ass-kicking on NC State, and Purdue lost to Bowling Green at home. Please. If Wake doesn't win by a touchdown, I'll be disappointed.
Iowa (23/19) (-5) @ Iowa State: This game is at Ames, and ISU has won the last 5. Considering that Iowa is much more talented than ISU, expect a blowout, even in Ames. Iowa has to be motivated for this game; if they aren't, then Kirk Ferentz isn't nearly the coach that he's reputed to be.
NFL picks to follow later.
Politically: Perhaps introduction is in order. Probably the best way to describe my political views is to say that they are just to the right of libertarianism. I favour local governance, rather than national governance; the national government has, unless my interpretation of the Constitution is completely wrong, usurped several powers not enumerated and has eroded several liberties. Perhaps you're thinking, given the introduction, that I'm a Bush basher. I'm not, but I have my quarrels with him - primarily with his expansion of social programs like the prescription drug benefit, or Ted Kennedy's education bill, or, to hear Kennedy and other statists, "downpayment". The best part of this is that this expansion of central government started not only before I was born, not only before my parents were born, but before my grandparents were born. The worst amendment to our constitution was the 16th. It is the amendment that provides for the taxation of income: this is a huge source of revenue to the federal government; deny this and federal government is smaller out of necessity. Where, for example, does the Constitution mention education? How about the environment? What does our Constitution say about gun control? Why, then, are there these vast federal bureaucracies - created by federal laws - which exist to enforce other federal laws regarding these topics? Moreover, what business does a large central government have enforcing some one-size-fits-all regulation over all the land? I will leave you with a thought from ex-President Ford: "Government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." The founders knew this; why don't we?
Football: I will offer picks against the line in this space of both college football - NCAA warnings against gambling notwithstanding - and the NFL. I will predict every NFL game on the slate, but will only predict those college football games involving teams in the top 25 in either the AP (writers) or ESPN/USA Today (coaches) polls. Note: all picks for entertainment only; further note: if you're dumb enough to wager money based on a pick by me, then you deserve to lose it. I'm not betting my money on my picks; they are little more than intution based on incomplete information. All lines courtesy of Vegas.com. I am using the Caesars-Hilton line.
On to the picks (my picks in bold):
Fresno St (+28 1/2) @ Oklahoma (1 AP/1 ESPN): Fresno lives for these games, and OU has, in the past, looked beyond some of the games that aren't qute as important (i.e. not a major bowl, and not Texas). Do I think Fresno will win outright? Not in Norman. But I can't see them getting blown out to the tune of a 4 touchdown difference.
ECU (+41) @ Miami (2/2): I hate lines this big. And while ECU will get blown out, I'm guessing that Miami's 3rd stringers won't get the final margin to 41.
N.C. State (24/22) (+10 1/2) @ Ohio State (3/3): NC State will look to prove that last week was a fluke. Problem is, their defence looks like a very movable object. Lucky for them, Ohio State's offense seems to be the resistible force.
Hawaii (+21) @ Southern Cal (4/4): This is Hawaii wunderkind QB Tommy Chang's first game this season, having sat out the first game for an academic suspension. I can't imagine that there could be a worse opponent against which a QB shakes out the rust than SC. SC blows UH out.
Notre Dame (15/14) (+10 1/2) @ Michigan (5/7): If Notre Dame can't slow Chris Perry down, this should get ugly. But Notre Dame showed their grit coming from behind to beat Washington State last week. Michigan hasn't proven a thing, with big wins over Central Mich. and Houston. Please. And these games are always close.
Arkansas (+13 1/2) @ Texas (6/5): Arkansas hasn't lost to Texas since the split of the old Southwest Conference, including a win in the 2000 Cotton Bowl in which coach Houston Nutt flashed an upside-down "Hook 'em Horns" sign at the end of the game. Motivation? Sure. But Nutt always does well in big games; just ask Phil Fulmer.
Massachusetts (NL) @ Kansas State (7/6): K-State's second I-AA opponent this season. Expect a blowout, but it won't help KSU down the road in figuring out where they stand as a team, or in the BCS formula. Expect them to lose 1 or 2 games and get jammed up by the BCS. And withhold your sympathy.
South Carolina (25/NR) (+14 1/2) @ Georgia (8/8): South Carolina has won 2 of the last 3 in this series, and in those three games, Georgia has scored exactly 1 offensive touchdown, in the first possession of the 2000 game, a 21-10 loss in Columbia. To be completely honest, I'd be more surprised if Georgia covers than I would be if South Carolina wins outright.
Georgia Tech (+24) @ Florida State (10/10): Georgia Tech will have an emotional letdown after dropping Auburn to 0-2, and FSU is still playing the "us-against-the-world" card, which means that Tech will come out less than sharp, that they won't have the crowd to get behind them, and that FSU will come out sharp. Since Tech's talent isn't nearly as good as FSU's, expect a blowout.
Ball State (+31) @ Pittsburgh (11/12): Rod Rutherford gets the start after not starting last week; expect him to put big numbers up against another weak MAC team.
Western Illinois (NL) @ Louisiana State (12/11): Expect a blowout, even with 2nd or 3rd teamers playing.
UNLV (+21) @ Wisconsin (14/15): UNLV beats a decent Toledo team (down 10-7 at Marshall as I write this), and then goes off and gets blown out by Kansas. I can't see them doing anything but getting blown out at Wisconsin, because of the lack of mental toughness.
Utah State (+27) @ Arizona State (16/16): Just guessing. Don't have a clue about either of these teams, but I figure that being 16th in the country and being at home is worth 4 touchdowns against Utah State.
Washington State (+4) @ Colorado (17/17): Washington State showed me something in how they got out big at Notre Dame. Can they do it again, against a Colorado who beat UCLA by 2? I'm guessing yes, if only because I think UCLA isn't as good as WSU.
Penn State (+9 1/2) @ Nebraska (18/18): Penn State will look to rebound from the egg they laid at BC; NU will look for revenge from last year's 40-7 asskicking. I think that NU will win in the end, but by only a field goal.
Florida A&M (NL) @ Florida (19/20): Florida looks to rebound, and prepare for Tennessee next weekend. It's bound to get ugly.
Purdue (PK) @ Wake Forest (20/21): Pick 'em? Are you kidding me? I guess that Wake has to look out for an emotional letdown, and a motivated Purdue team, but Wake laid an ass-kicking on NC State, and Purdue lost to Bowling Green at home. Please. If Wake doesn't win by a touchdown, I'll be disappointed.
Iowa (23/19) (-5) @ Iowa State: This game is at Ames, and ISU has won the last 5. Considering that Iowa is much more talented than ISU, expect a blowout, even in Ames. Iowa has to be motivated for this game; if they aren't, then Kirk Ferentz isn't nearly the coach that he's reputed to be.
NFL picks to follow later.
Comments:
Post a Comment
